July 23, 2025

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Tesla California Sales Plummet 20%, Dragging EV Market

Tesla’s second-quarter registrations in California plunged more than 20% year-over-year, driving the share of new zero-emission vehicles down to 18.2% from 22%, data from the California New Car Dealers Association show. Despite overall new-car sales growth in the state, Tesla’s slump marks its seventh straight quarterly decline in the nation’s largest EV market.

With the $7,500 federal EV tax credit set to expire in September and no fresh models until later this year, Tesla has introduced incentives—free Supercharging on select Model 3 purchases and complimentary Full Self-Driving transfers—as it gears up to report Q2 earnings after the market closes Wednesday.

Investors Pin Hopes on Tesla’s Robotaxi Ahead of Q2 Results

Tesla shares ticked higher in premarket trading as the EV maker prepares to report Q2 results after Wednesday’s close. Despite an 18% year-to-date slide against an 8% S&P 500 gain, investors are zeroing in on Tesla’s fledgling robotaxi service to offset softer vehicle deliveries.

Key considerations ahead of the earnings call:

Consensus Q2 EPS/revenue: $0.41/$22.13 billion vs. $0.40/$25.5 billion a year ago.

Vehicle deliveries: 384,122 units, down from 443,956 year-on-year but up from Q1’s 336,681.

Analyst sentiment: Roth Capital sees robotaxi and Optimus as catalysts (Buy, $395 target); BofA stays Neutral with a $314 target.

Investors will look past headline sales and focus on management’s update on robotaxi expansion, service performance and regulatory hurdles to gauge Tesla’s next growth phase.

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Trump’s Japan Deal Cuts Auto Tariffs to 15%

In a landmark accord announced July 30, 2025, President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba agreed to lower U.S. tariffs on Japanese automobiles to 15%, down from the 25% rate scheduled to take effect in August. The deal also secures $550 billion in Japanese investment and loans into the U.S. economy, which both leaders hailed as ushering in a “new golden era” of bilateral trade.

Financial markets reacted enthusiastically. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 3.5%, led by Toyota (+14.3%) and Subaru (+16.6%), while European auto stocks—including Volkswagen (+6.3%), Mercedes-Benz (+5.7%) and BMW (+5%)—rallied on hopes the framework could pave the way for a similar accord with the EU. However, U.S. industry groups cautioned that replicating Japan’s concessions elsewhere may prove unpredictable, as analysts warn that differing trade profiles and domestic content rules will complicate negotiations.

Pony AI’s Gen-7 Robotaxi Hits Beijing Streets Ahead of Mass Production

Pony AI has begun road testing its seventh-generation (Gen-7) BAIC Robotaxi across Beijing’s 225 km² High-Level Autonomous Driving Demonstration Zone, marking a significant stride toward its goal of mass production and a 1,000-vehicle fleet by year-end 2025.

Concurrently, Pony AI is testing Gen-7 vehicles in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, while its next-gen Level 4 domain controller—built on Nvidia OrinX chips—surpassed 2 million km of on-road trials. Through in-house optimization, the system’s cost dropped by 80%, and its lifespan extended to ten years or 600,000 km, paving the way for a commercial rollout in 2025.

GM EV Sales Jump 111% Ahead of Tax Credit Deadline

General Motors’ electric-vehicle arm recorded a 111% surge in Q2 sales, helping the automaker beat StreetAccount earnings estimates despite a 31.6% year-on-year drop in EBIT to $3.04 billion. CEO Mary Barra credited Chevrolet’s strengthened portfolio and Cadillac’s luxury lineup, but experts say aggressive incentives ahead of the Sept. 30 tax-credit cutoff also drove demand.

Key context:

Buyers can claim up to $7,500 on new EVs and $4,000 on used models through Sept. 30 under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.

Dealerships have floated steep lease deals and cash-back bonuses to clear lots before the Trump-era tax credits expire.

With GM capturing 16% of the U.S. EV market in Q2—second only to Tesla—Barra expects a “pull-ahead” effect now that credits vanish, and is doubling down on next-generation battery tech to reinforce EV profitability by 2028.

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Tesla Sales Plunge 20% in California, EV Share Falls to 18.2%